Two Hungarian opinion polls: the gay pride parade and political popularity
Szonda Ipsos, a Hungarian pollster, has been busy lately. Two days after the the ill-fated gay pride parade in Budapest Az Este, MTV’s late night political program, asked for a quick poll on the public’s reaction to the event.
I don’t think that the results are terribly surprising. More than two-thirds of the people blame the gays for the debacle on Saturday. According to these people the gays should not behave that “provocatively.” Only twenty-one percent of those asked think that what happened was shameful. Sixteen percent don’t know whom they should blame. About twenty percent of the people simply don’t give a hoot one way or the other. Seventy-four percent of those polled believe that the actions of the mob are motivated by hatred or that they want to create an upheaval. However, eighteen percent consider their actions acceptable, even a proper way of expressing one’s opinion. A large majority is convinced that the mob doesn’t really care whom they attack as long as it is a minority. Only fifteen percent think that the gays were the specific targets. About twenty percent of the people haven’t got the foggiest idea what the extreme right really wants.
About half of the people wouldn’t have allowed the radical counter-demonstrators near the parade, but as we know very well the police had no choice in the matter due to the less than perfect legislation concerning street demonstrations. Almost thirty percent of the people would have forbidden all demonstrations on that day. Perhaps the most telling: 75% of the people consider human dignity a more important consideration than freedom of speech.
The Hungarian judges try to explain things away
Dissatisfaction with the Hungarian judiciary has been growing in the last couple of years. Earlier complaints usually focused on the inconsistency of decisions: different judges came up with opposite verdicts in virtually identical cases. Or that on appeal the judge of the appellate court reached entirely different conclusions from those of the first judge. In the last two years the law-abiding citizens who are horrified at the behavior of a fairly easily defined group on the streets of Budapest have been noticing a certain reluctance of the courts to punish people for acts that ordinary citizens consider to be criminal. Yesterday’s decision reached at summary proceedings (gyorsított eljárás) really was the last straw. People are by now convinced that the Hungarian court system is defending the criminals and that the members of the Hungarian judiciary have a political agenda. And let’s face it, there have been several cases where the courts’ inconsistencies are politically suspect. When demonstrators threw eggs at Gábor Demszky, SZDSZ mayor of Budapest, the court decided that a public figure like Demszky must suffer such acts; they are simply expressions of some people’s contrary political opinion. However, when a similar situation occurred in the case of the Fidesz mayor of Esztergom, suddenly egg throwing became a different matter. The egg throwers were punished.
Until now every time I heard spokesmen of either the courts or the prosecutor’s office talk about controversial cases they always defended the decision, however implausible it sounded to the layperson. They always had a complete explanation for anything the members of the Hungarian judiciary did. However, there seems to be a slight change in the attitude most likely as a result of the outcry that followed yesterday’s verdict.
The last straw: the Hungarian police and the judiciary
Prime Minister Gyurcsány stood alone in front of the parliament building Sunday morning and announced that the mob attack on a peaceful demonstration the day before was the last straw. Hungarian society has had enough. It is time to show that the majority will not tolerate a few thousand troublemakers’ constant threat to public peace and order. He suggested that on September 2 there should be a mass demonstration. In addition he asked the president, the speaker of the house, the chief justice of the constitutional court, the chief justice of the supreme court, and the chief prosecutor to get together with him to devise a course of action to put an end to lawlessness.
To tell you the truth, I don’t believe that this is the right course of action. I simply don’t know what either a demonstration or a meeting of the chief dignitaries would achieve. I suspect mighty little. A lot of words, a few thousand people, a few thousand policemen defending the few thousand peaceful demonstrators and then comes October 23, 2008, and everything goes its merry way again.
Realpolitik and the Hungarian political situation
Realpolitik, as the English spelling of the word testifies, means political conduct or analysis that takes into consideration the given political reality. It is a practical way at looking at politics. Instead of wishful thinking the politician or the political commentator analyzes a country’s actual political situation and bases his actions and analyzes solely on the real, tangible political reality. I happen to believe that this is the only viable way of looking at politics. (And I don’t want to hear that I’m an epistemological dunce.)
I find it rather annoying when some Hungarian “political scientists” or politicians say such things as “Gyurcsány and Orbán will have to disappear.” These two men will not disappear; they will be part of Hungarian politics for the foreseeable future. That’s Hungarian political reality. Hungary’s future lies in the hands of these two men, and the voters simply have to choose between them.
Hungarian Public Television
Hungarian Public Television (Magyar Televízió = MTV) is not exactly a haven for high-brow programs. It’s just like all the other television stations that vie for viewers and through them for more advertising revenue. Although I know that in Europe life cannot be imagined without publicly funded television stations, one has the distinct feeling that the rationale for these public television stations is fading in our modern world. It is impossible to cram everything that the public “should be interested in” within one station: operas, concerts, theater, history, documentaries, movies, literature, religion (all denominations), cooking shows, news, sports, political discussions. Should I continue? Theme channels now dominate cable TV in the United States: entertainment, history, music, do-it-yourself, cooking, sports (including one dedicated to golf), and politics. Just to mention a few. With the introduction of digital television such a thematic solution is easily attainable in Hungary; if I recall, a few years ago, during the contest for the position of president of MTV, Sándor Friderikusz’s proposal actually contained the novel idea of making four or six channels out of MTV, each devoted to a specific topic that would draw targeted audiences. In my opinion no public television station can today compete with the plethora of channels catering to specific audiences. Thirty years ago in the United States the appearance of National Public Television was an oasis in the desert for those, like myself, who weren’t too thrilled with Mr. Ed or the Beverly Hillbillies. Today there are still some excellent programs such as Masterpiece [formerly Masterpiece Theater], the American Experience, Frontline, and Nova, but the general level of evening and weekend programming has deteriorated. (Daytime programming is dedicated to children’s shows.) The fifth time–actually, probably the tenth time–around the same “Keeping Up Appearances” is not exactly on the Tivo “to do” list.
But let’s go back to MTV and the constant trouble there. Most people I know tell me that they hardly ever watch MTV with the possible exception of the late evening political program, Az Este, and on Sundays A Szólás Szabadsága, especially if there are interesting guests. With the populace at large the early morning political show, Napkelte, is also quite popular, but apparently the real winners are quiz shows and light entertainment: Örökös, A Társulat, and Csináljunk Fesztivált. I discovered a few Hungarian-made soaps that were predictably boring (though apparently it doesn’t take long before people become soap-opera addicts), and I found a murder mystery that wasn’t exactly captivating but watchable.
MTV is not so much a producer as a disseminator of content; it produces only 30% of what it airs. The only shows that are produced in house are Az Este, A Szólás Szabadsága, Híradó, and the religious programs. All the others are purchased from outside studios.
The Hungarian gay pride parade
This morning I heard one of the right-wing organizers explain that his organization is a peaceful group of concerned citizens. They just want to defend family values. Their only aim is to stop the yearly gay pride parade in Budapest because they consider it a form of advertising for homosexuality. But they will never resort to force. The organization’s name is Rendszerváltó Fórum. And what do I see in the online edition of Népszabadság tonight? “The most forceful attack against the demonstrators came from Rendszerváltó Fórum’s meeting at Franz Liszt Square.” Well, well! The report continues: “On the square the demonstrators tried to break the cordon [the police had erected] and attacked the police, who answered with tear gas.” At the far end of Andrássy Street, on Heroes’ Square, hooded and often masked demonstrators attacked the policemen, using Molotov cocktails, rocks, eggs, whatever. Here the police used water cannons as well as tear gas. Because of the “battle” on Heroes’ Square the police diverted the participants in the parade off the main road. In order to make sure that they were not attacked after the parade was over, as happened last year, the police directed the gays into the old nineteenth-century metro that was closed to the public for the duration. That way they could leave the scene without insults or bodily harm.
However, some people were not so lucky. József Orosz, a reporter for Klub Rádió, was recognized at the Kodály Circle. His attackers first abused him verbally, but soon enough they became violent. He was hit on the head and on the shoulder. For a brief period he lost consciousness. According to Orosz, one of his attackers yelled to the mob: “Come here, you can spit on Orosz.” Orosz is a liberally minded reporter and hence often the target of the extreme right. Gábor Horn, the SZDSZ politician, was also recognized by three young guys who spat on him, poured beer all over him, and at the end slapped him around. Gábor Szetey, former undersecretary in charge of the reform of public administration and the only member of the government who openly admitted to being gay, was recognized as he was leaving the scene with Katalin Lévai, a MSZP member of the parliament of the European Union. They managed to survive the ordeal unscathed thanks to a police car that came to their rescue. The mob subsequently broke the window of the car, but the passengers were unharmed. Lévai, who is a great champion of equal opportunity in Brussels, was shaken. She expressed her total amazement at the behavior of the extremist demonstrators. The whole scene reminded her of what she imagined to be the mood at a lynching or a pogrom. She added that it was horrifying to witness the egg and rock throwing and the physical attacks. Something like that shouldn’t happen in a European city, she said. She will write a report to the socialist delegation of the European Parliament and also to the head of the organization dealing with gay rights.
How can this happen? Why is it that until two years ago these gay pride parades went off without any trouble?
Read the rest of the article »
A bit more math
As I predicted yesterday numbers are flying. And not just numbers but words too. To recap: Viktor Orbán and Mihály Varga held a press conference on Wednesday where they outlined Fidesz’s remedies for the soaring food and energy prices. They claimed that a drastic decrease in VAT (ÁFA) would not cost the central budget a single cent (or to be more authentic, a fillér). The loss of revenues would be amply compensated for by increased domestic consumption.
One didn’t have to wait long before Ferenc Gyurcsány responded with his own press conference. Like Orbán he didn’t come alone. But unlike Orbán he didn’t have a high-level economist in tow but rather an ordinary elementary school math teacher. The claim was that any sixth-grade student should be able to realize that Orbán’s proposition is nonsense. The school teacher stood in front of a blackboard and explained that if Mr.Citizen went shopping for food in the supermarket and purchased 1,000 Ft worth of stuff, at the checkout counter he would pay a total of 1,200 Ft given the 20% ÁFA. If that ÁFA were reduced to 5%, Mr. Citizen would have to buy 4,000 Ft worth of food for the budget to receive the same 200 Ft in revenues. Surely, said Gyurcsány, this is an impossibility. People will not buy four times more food than they do today. Here is a photo with the simple arithmetic on the blackboard.
Meanwhile Fidesz altered their estimates. No longer do they claim that there would be no loss; rather, there would be a shortfall of only 120 billion as opposed to the government’s estimate of 320 billion. Read more »
The latest Fidesz ideas about the economy
Yesterday with a certain fanfare Viktor Orbán and Mihály Varga held a joint press conference during which they outlined their plans to ease the economic pressure on the Hungarian population caused by rising food and energy prices. As we know, the parabolic rise in the price of oil and all other energy sources is influencing the economic health of the whole world. Even the price of food is partly connected to the rise in the price of energy. Although in the United States the presidential candidates advocate immediate remedies (like lowering the excise tax on gasoline or a windfall profit tax on oil companies) cooler heads who aren’t trying to get elected prefer to let the market work things out. Admittedly so far the market hasn’t done a very good job. Crude oil in the U.S. is up 400% since Bush was inaugurated in 2001; heating oil is double what it was a year ago. There’s lots of finger-pointing: China and India are using huge amounts of oil, the U.S. dollar is in the toilet, environmentalists prevent oil exploration, speculators are driving the price into bubble territory. So far we’ve seen only limited demand destruction in the U.S. The upshot: no one knows whether oil is heading to $170 as the president of OPEC predicted, whether it will hit the round number of $200, or whether it will settle back down to more reasonable levels.
The Gyurcsány government is pursuing a cautious course: next year’s crop should be very good and lowering VAT on food usually makes no difference because, based on past experience, any decrease in VAT is offset by an increase in the price of the product. VAT goes down, the price of the item goes up, and the consumer doesn’t gain a cent. On the energy front Hungary is suffering from horrible inefficiencies. For instance, the Hungarian consumption of natural gas is sky high because of the shoddy apartment buildings erected during the era of plentiful and dirt cheap Soviet gas. Moreover, these rows and rows of ugly apartment houses are heated by distance heating that is very convenient but also very expensive. Most of the apartments in these buildings don’t have their own thermostats, and the only way to regulate heat is by opening windows. The owners of these apartments cannot turn a thermostat down at night or during the day when they are at work. Or during the two weeks of winter holidays. Insulation is practically nonexistent, and through the single pane windows heat pours out. The government did introduce some financial incentives for the owners to consider investing money into fixing up their apartments and for all the owners jointly to do something about the thermostat problems. In East Germany these apartment complexes (in Hungarian panelházak) were simply torn down. Hungary and I assume the other former socialist countries couldn’t do that: there was no rich West Hungary or West Czechoslovakia behind them.
The dead cucumber thief: Whose fault is it?
Three gypsy men had a jolly good time in the local tavern in Kesznyéten, a medium-sized village in Borsod county. After consuming a fair amount of alcohol they decided to steal cucumbers from a villager’s vegetable garden. The gardener, a sixty-eight-year-old man, had had a lot of trouble with intruders who time and again stole his produce. He apparently reported the incidents to the police, to no avail. So he decided to take things into his own hands. He fenced his property with aluminum wire connected to the electrical current. At night at 10 o’clock he electrified his fence and the next morning at six, he shut it off. Apparently a lot of people in the village knew about his home-made contraption, including the three who decided to try to steal some cucumbers anyway. I guess they figured that they just had to be careful and all would be well. It didn’t turn out that way. The oldest (age 48) died on the spot, the second one (age 30) was seriously injured, and only the youngest managed to escape with minor injuries–some burns on his feet. He was the one who ran for help.
These three men were related, part of an extended family of about 50 to 60 people who vowed revenge. Luckily the police arrived with a large force and prevented any bloodshed. The old villager is charged with attempted murder (“több ember ellen elkövetett emberölés” is the Hungarian legal term; it implies that homicide was attempted against several people) while the two survivors are charged with larceny. The older villager apparently didn’t have the foggiest idea that his idea of protecting his property was not legal in Hungary. He believed that if the police didn’t defend him he had to defend himself. (I assume that in Hungary as in the United States ignorance of the law is no excuse. And that a person can’t take the law into his own hands.) According to György Magyar, one of those “star lawyers” who take high-profile cases, the Hungarian criminal code considers such a dangerous way of defending personal property disproportionate to the potential theft of that property. (Your life for my cucumbers.)
Hungarian justice
One can hardly find words to describe how poorly the Hungarian legal system functions. Both the prosecutor’s offices and the courts are terribly slow. The judges don’t seem to be able to differentiate between important, often political, cases that should have speedy trials and trivial matters. To give two recent examples. First, the blockade of the Elizabeth Bridge in the summer of 2002. On the surface it was a very straightforward case. György Budaházy, then an unknown, organized a blockade of the bridge in order to protest “the fraudulent elections” that returned the socialists to power. It is unnecessary to dwell on the paralysis of the Keystone Kops who took at least three or four hours to figure out how to remove the few cars and reopen the bridge to traffic. Well, six years later we have a verdict: Mr. Budaházy can either pay a 40,000 forint (170 euro) fine or spend a few days in jail. But, if I recall, Mr. Budaházy can still appeal, and I bet he will. Or, a current case: the Hungarian Guard. Everybody knows that the visits of the Guard to Gypsy villages and the trouble they cause is no small matter. The whole world is full of stories about this notorious paramilitary group. The court simply has to decide whether the Guard is really a cultural organization as they registered. The court began its deliberations in April. There were two or three court appearances, but yesterday the judges decided that this weighty case must be continued until September. Unfortunately, the Hungarian Guard also continues its activity.
But this is only one problem.
Soccer and related topics
It doesn’t happen too often that I write about soccer because I must confess I have virtually no interest in the sport. I think that in my entire my life I witnessed only one soccer match–at the age of nine. I was visiting some relatives in Vasas (today part of Pécs) and there was this huge event in the life of the mining village: the Pécs soccer team came to play Vasas. It was held on an ordinary field, and the audience stood on the sidelines because there were no seats. Pécs won, everybody was cheering for Vasas, I was alone on the other side. I didn’t have the foggiest idea what was going on, but that didn’t prevent me from cheering madly for the visiting team. Even then I was an independent soul.
My interest in the game hasn’t grown since, so you can imagine how much attention I was paying to the European championship. However, it was impossible not to hear bits and pieces about the different teams and their chances. I must admit that this little information came in handy the other day when I went to the hairdresser who is Italian and an avid soccer fan. I casually mentioned the Dutch, the German, and the Italian teams. I sounded like a pro. Fortunately the conversation didn’t go far enough to expose me as a total phony.
What I really don’t like about the game is the violence that often accompanies it. The hosts of this year’s European championship, the Austrians and the Swiss, boasted about how peaceful the games were. They added that no liquor could be taken into the arenas. Moreover, from what I hear about ticket prices perhaps the audience was not the brawling sort. Even if in Austria and in Switzerland there was no trouble, the situation was different in Madrid. Fifty-nine people were arrested and one was found dead. The Spanish fans in their happiness broke shop windows, set garbage cans on fire, and acted half-crazed. And there was a scene that I hope Krisztina Morvai also saw: two policemen mercilessly beating a guy with their nightsticks. Wow! Maybe the defender of the “innocent” Hungarian demonstrators should shift her focus from Budapest to Madrid.
I think that the attitude toward soccer has changed radically in the last fifty years or so. Both Péter Esterházy and his brother were avid players. Their aristocratic mother disapproved. As Péter Esterházy said in an interview, it was not suitable for her children. Only lower-class kids played soccer. And similarly, middle-class men and women did not go to soccer games. Today, there is a soccer mania and almost everybody is interested in the sport.
Gay parade: Trouble is already brewing in Hungary
Last year was the first time in Hungary that far-right groups attacked members of the gay festival held in early July, a day designated for the event worldwide. At that time I wasn’t terribly surprised because physical violence had became commonplace in Hungary ever since the fall of 2006. Initially the police managed to keep order and guard the safety of the participants. At that time (July 7, 2007) I wrote a piece praising the Hungarian police about a job well done. Two days later I had to change my mind: the police left the scene too early, and these extreme homophobic groups attacked people after the official celebration ended. Blood was flowing.
This year we might expect much greater trouble. First of all, the police have become weak-kneed. The gay community went to the the Budapest police to request a permit for their planned parade on Andrássy út. To the utter surprise of everybody, the police announced that, unlike in previous years when the gays didn’t unduly interfere with traffic, this year they would. So the police chief refused permission. An outcry followed. A day later the police chief changed his mind. (I suspect after some pressure from above.) Most likely the Budapest police simply didn’t feel like getting involved and, suspecting trouble, thought that the best course of action was simply to ban the event and save everybody a lot of trouble. But, let’s face it, this is a cowardly and in the final analysis an unacceptable way of handling extremist outbursts.
Hungarians and traffic laws
Hungarian drivers are notorious: apparently you put your life on the line when you try to cross a street. Just lately there were several fatal accidents at pedestrian crossings. One was really terrible: a grandmother was pushing her grandchild in a stroller, and a car that refused to stop ran them down. Both died.
Then there are the horrific pictures in the newspapers. The bodies of the vehicles are twisted beyond recognition, and the cars sometimes land upside down. Often these are single-car accidents; the driver simply lost control. He was going at such a speed that he was unable to take a curve and smashed against a telephone poll, a fence, or a house. People, including children, fly out of these wrecks because they refuse to buckle up. Children who are not supposed to ride in the front seat do.
Lajos Bokros et al.
Economists are looked upon in Hungary as a fiercely independent group within the intellectual elite whose only guideline is strict professionalism. They are respected scholars, and whatever they say is the "truth." Apparently, according to Zsófia Mihancsik (in the last issue of Mozgó Világ, a monthly), this high esteem of economists goes back to the Kádár regime when at one point it seemed that the ills of the regime were not so much political as economic in nature. Even practicing journalists, admittedly without any economic background, look upon economists' words as holy writ. I had an interesting experience with one of these journalists. Some time ago in Napkelte (Sunrise), the early morning political show on the Hungarian equivalent of public television, the journalist confidently explained to an MSZP politician that the American experience proves that lower taxes translate into higher economic growth. This was the situation under President Reagan, he added. Well, my curiosity was aroused and I decided to inquire from him where he learned that. Answer: From So and So. I asked him: Don't you realize that there is this kind of economist and that kind of economist? Or, as the standard joke goes about the dismal science, on the one hand, on the other hand, and on the third hand. It seems that this never occurred to him. If an economist says something it must be true.
Anyone who has followed recent Hungarian developments must be struck by the sudden activity of economists. Suddenly they are full of excellent ideas. Not a day passes that one of these gurus doesn't come up with some plan that will save, if not the world, at least Hungary. And their recipes are fullproof. Not long ago I talked about the four young economists of Oriens who promised an economic paradise in two years if their plan is accepted. Luckily it wasn't. There are two or three all-knowing economists who can be heard practically daily. One of them is László Csaba about whom I will say nothing because he is considered to be Fidesz's "court economist." However, I would like to say a few words about László Békesi and Lajos Bokros, both former ministers of finance under Gyula Horn, and both of whom, by the way, were eventually fired by the socialist prime minister.
Békesi always looks as if the end of the world were at hand. He had the same demeanor during his tenure as minister of finance. Mind you, then the situation was really critical. But since then Békesi has not become a more cheerful soul. And now that Fidesz has managed to whip up a "crisis situation" Békesi is an obvious media guest. It is not necessary to go into the details of what Békesi says because he is completely in sync with the other suddenly active economists. What they all have in common is a firm grasp of textbook economic theory and a total disregard of the existing political situation.
Listening to Békesi, as I indicated above, is not fun, but I must say that I had to laugh the last time I heard him. He was being interviewed after the deal with Daimler-Benz became public. He was asked how it was possible that such a prestigious, world-renowned auto manufacturer decided to establish a large plant in Hungary if the Hungarian economic situation is as bad as he and his economist friends claim. Békesi was at a loss. The decision, he kept repeating, was totally unexpected. Something must be not quite right. We will perhaps one day find out what kind of illegal, sinister force is behind it. He didn't elaborate, but I had the feeling that what he had in mind was something like this: Perhaps pressure was put on Daimler-Benz from above (the German government, European Union?) to choose Hungary and thus bolster Ferenc Gyurcsány's government. One possibility he didn't contemplate: he is exaggerating the problems of Hungary, and the situation doesn't look so bad from abroad as the Hungarian economists would like us to believe.
And now let's talk about Lajos Bokros. I used to respect the man, but lately I have very serious reservations about him. Not as an economist because he admittedly did a very good and brave thing in the spring of 1995 that helped to save Hungary from economic and financial ruin. But where was he with all his reform ideas when the government announced its reform plans two years ago? Did he help? Did he tell Hungarian society that these measures were necessary? Did he tell the Hungarian people that Fidesz's attacks on the government's reform plans were misplaced? That Fidesz and Orbán were outright wrong? No, he didn't. He said nothing. Now that Fidesz has managed to put an end to many of the reforms, Lajos Bokros surfaces and attacks Ferenc Gyurcsány and his government for not having the guts to continue the reforms that were killed by Fidesz. This is not decent behavior. Not in my eyes.
And by the way, for those of you who understand Hungarian I highly recommend Sándor Friderikusz's final program tomorrow night on ATV. Inspired by Zsófia Mihancsik's penetrating article about Lajos Bokros in Mozgó Világ, Friderikusz has organized a get-together between Ferenc Gyurcsány and three economists. It should be a real treat. As for Mihancsik's article I will summarize it next time.
Half time: 2006-2008 (II)
As promised, let's review the Gyurcsány government's failures. First, there was the ill-fated plan to build a separate, modern government complex to which all the ministries would have moved. In theory, the idea was good. At the moment ministries are housed in old, inefficient buildings in downtown Pest. These buildings were not erected to house ministries or any kind of offices. Some of them were luxury apartments built in the late nineteenth century. Heating is very expensive because of the high ceilings. The rooms are too big for individual offices. Communication among ministries is cumbersome. By contrast, the proposed complex would have had a smaller footprint and maintenance would have been less costly. But the proposed construction, introduced in the middle of an austerity program, became a prime target for the opposition. And that wasn't the only problem: inadequate preparation, charges of corruption, professional criticism about the projected costs, all led to scrapping the project. It surely added to the government's woes.
The other very serious failure was the reform of the health care system.
Is the tide turning?
On Monday Gyurcsány appeared on Az Este, a late evening political program on MTV. He seemed to be in a very upbeat mood and was his old combative self. Yesterday morning he gave a long interview on Mokka, an early morning show on TV2. Here his performance when confronted with a rather antagonistic reporter reminded me of his debate with Viktor Orbán when he basically won the 2006 elections. He had at least three reasons to be happy. Read more »
Orbán in trouble
I know this is a surprising if not ludicrous idea according to most people. How can I say this when according to the latest polls Orbán’s party could easily win the election if it were held this month? How can I say this when there is a minority government and when no one knows what Gábor Fodor will do? How can I say this when Viktor Orbán almost daily “negotiates” with, for instance, businessmen and representatives of the IMF and announces at least twice daily that he wants to have a new “contract” with everybody who is anybody. Yes, I’m sticking by my guns: the more he talks, the more he acts as if he were only a few steps away from being Hungary’s prime minister, the less likely it is that he will have the opportunity to become prime minister earlier than 2010 and perhaps not even then.
The performance of the last few weeks seems to me a series of desperate moves to extricate himself from the web of contradictions that he himself spun. His trouble began with his boastful speech to young political scientists. The politician who until then had publicly claimed that the country’s economic problems could be solved by simply lowering taxes and giving people more money privately proposed to seminar participants (they were sworn to secrecy) an austerity program twice as severe as that of the current government. When the private became public and he was confronted with the charge that he must have been lying to the Hungarian people, he tried to explain things away. But however he tried and is still trying things don’t sound any better.
Read the entire article: Orbán in Trouble »
Gyurcsány is satisfied
Sometimes it is enough to look at a picture taken after a meeting to know whether the gathering was a success from the point of view of the organizers. The photo taken of Ferenc Gyurcsány surrounded by a number of people as they are leaving the government compound at Dobogókő speaks volumes. Gyurcsány is satisfied. We don’t know too many details of the two-day discussions, but it seems that the party and the government are behind him.
They came to some broad conclusions about the strategy the government should pursue over the next couple of years. As predicted, Oriens’ plans for reorganizing the current economic structure found no sympathy among the politicians present. However, there was broad agreement on two issues. First, they were satisfied with the government’s efforts of the last two years in decreasing the deficit. Second, although budgetary restraint should continue, the focus should shift to economic growth. There was agreement concerning the methods of achieving this goal: more jobs, more investment, changes in taxation, modest welfare reform, and positive changes in education.
They decided that the amount of money allocated to social benefits cannot decrease. The Swiss indexing of pensions will be kept. However, the money spent on social welfare must be used more effectively: fewer welfare checks and for a limited amount of time…
Read the entire article: Gyurcsány is satisfied »
politics, Gyurcsány, government, socialist party, Dobogókő
The Hungarian parliament goes on vacation and the IMF visits Hungary
Although Hungarian politicians claim that there will be no real lull in governmental and political activity during the summer, parliament had its last session yesterday.
Some of the highlights: János Veres’s five-minute report on the economic developments of the first six months of the year. He naturally blamed Viktor Orbán’s ill-conceived and irresponsible announcement about the restructuring of Hungary’s debt load for the large drop in the value of the forint on Friday. As I mentioned in my letter to the blog, since Monday morning the forint has risen steadily against the euro. Other speeches of interest were those of Tibor Navracsics, Ferenc Gyurcsány, and Gábor Fodor.
I especially enjoy watching the faces of politicians when they are listening to their colleagues…
Read the entire article: The Hungarian parliament goes on vacation and the IMF visits Hungary »
politics, IMF, Viktor Orban, parliament session
SZDSZ elections solved nothing
Gábor Fodor received 346 votes and János Kóka 344. A year ago Kóka won by seven votes. It’s true that there were some suspicious ballots then but, given this new close contest, one can safely say that SZDSZ remains a deeply divided party. A few weeks ago most people predicted a much more lopsided result in Fodor’s favor, but it seems that there was enough hesitancy about Fodor’s ability as party leader that close to half of the delegates decided to stick with the known quantity. Running the day-to-day business of the party is a twelve-person committee. The composition of this group didn’t change substantially: there are some Kóka supporters (including Kóka himself) and some Fodor supporters.
So the election didn’t bring any seismic shift in the balance of forces within the party. Nothing was solved as far as the internal divisions are concerned. The importance of the elections, according to some observers, is how the new party chief will handle the relationship between SZDSZ and MSZP.
Read the entire article: SZDSZ elections solved nothing »
politics, SZDSZ, Kóka, Fodor
Trianon: the Object of Politics
Trianon Anniversary
June 4, 2008 by Eva S. Balogh
It was on June 4, 1920, 88 years ago, that in the Trianon Palace, just outside of Paris, Hungary signed the peace treaty with the Allied and Associated Powers. As a result, Hungary proper (that is, without Croatia-Slavonia) was reduced to less than one-third (32.6%) of its former territories, and it lost almost 60% of its population. However, out of the slightly more than 18 million inhabitants only about 10 million people claimed Hungarian as their mother tongue. Post-war Hungary’s population was reduced to about 7 million, most of them Hungarian-speaking. The rest, over three million, found themselves outside the borders.
Trianon was a national trauma for Hungarians. And it was exploited by a succession of Hungarian governments whose main foreign policy aim was the recovery of some or all of the lost territories and their Hungarian-language brethren who found themselves in Czechoslovakia, Romania, and Yugoslavia.
Read the entire article; very interesting and helps to understand the historical context of Trianon: Trianon: Anniversary (I) »
With the change of regime Trianon again became a topic of conversation and unfortunately the object of politics.
The role of Trianon in today’s Hungary
June 5, 2008 by Eva S. Balogh
Until recently only the extreme right was preoccupied with Trianon. This year, however, even Fidesz politicians have been involved in public demonstrations, unveiling monuments and giving anti-Trianon speeches. This is especially interesting because on June 4, 1990, the small Fidesz parliamentary delegation headed by Viktor Orbán unceremoniously marched out of the chamber when György Szabad, speaker of the house, asked the members to stand up and observe a few minutes of silence in remembrance of the signing of the peace treaty seventy years earlier. In 1990 Fidesz considered this gesture a sign of nationalism that might sow the seeds of mistrust between Hungary and her neighbors.
The Hungarian right hasn’t heeded Orbán’s early warnings. For instance, so far this year at least 150 events have been held in remembrance of Trianon. And then there is the proliferation of monuments over the past few years…
Read the entire article: Trianon: Anniversary (II) »
Trianon treaty, lost territories, nationalism, far right, extreme right, Fidesz, politics
Orbán’s Revelations and Their Afterlife
The important points Viktor Orbán revealed of his future plans in László Kéri’s seminar:
- Freezing pensions;
- Suspending the metro project in Budapest;
- Stopping road construction.
According to the results of the Szonda Ipsos poll Orban’s ideas did not meet with the majority’s approval. Read more »
Reactions to Orbán’s Revelations
My head is spinning. One hears nothing else but talking heads spouting their wisdom about Viktor Orbán’s monologue at a seminar of young political scientists, students of László Kéri. One interpretation is more bizarre than the next. At least to my mind. The best solutions in mathematics are the simplest. I think the same is true about political analysis. Read more »
Under the Sign of Half Truth
Central Eastern Europeans must be given the time they need to unravel their complex legacy of Communism and Fascism. Read more »
Fidesz and the Elections
A few days before the decisive run-off elections, the defeat of the conservative opposition party Fidesz seems ever more likely. Former supporters of the party blame its leader Viktor Orban and believe they have discovered leftist populism behind his arch-conservative, Euro-sceptical facade. Read more »
The Insane World of Political Life in Hungary
For a good sense of how insane the world of political life is in Hungary, check out this article by Edward Lucas, the Central European correspondent for both the London Financial Times and the Economist. When he asks both FIDESZ and the Socialists about their economic plans, both parties gleefully admit that they lied to win elections… Read more »
